Finally taking #401 on an overnight race. Questions about strategy.

Looking at the forecast for the Charleston area, it looks like we will have something like 8-10kt of wind closer inshore, with 2-3ft seas.

But further offshore (within where we might reasonably travel during this overnight race), it looks like we might get closer to 15kt of wind, but with closer to 5ft seas.

If we were looking at a run, of course heading offshore would be the way to go, but it appears that we will be on an almost perfect beat if the forecast holds.

My feeling is that the J/30, being small and wide, will fare better in the lighter seas in spite of the less wind.

I'm wondering what the list thinks: what are the thresholds here? Are we going to be faster upwind in 2-3ft/10kt (with more shorter tacks), or 4-5ft/15kt (with just a couple very long tacks)?

What other variables should we considering?

Thanks!

-Dan